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Working Paper 16-01: Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

Published: 4/12/2016
Author:

​​Alexander N. Bogin, Senior Economist; William M. Doerner, Senior Economist; William D. Larson, Senior Economist

*Revised June 2016

 ​

​​Abstract:

We construct the first large-scale panel of annual house price indices for cities, counties, 3-digit ZIP codes, and 5-digit ZIP codes in the United States from 1975 through 2015 using source data with nearly 100 million transactions. Appreciation rates decrease with distance from the central business district (CBD) in large cities, suggesting an overall increase in the desirability of housing units in CBD locations and a general steepening of the house price gradient. Real house prices are more likely to be non-stationary near the CBD than in the suburbs, a finding consistent with a higher elasticity of housing supply near the edge of the city. Sustained real price increases and high price volatility near the centers of large cities suggest a lower supply elasticity in these locations. 

The five-digit ZIP code HPIs constructed in this staff working paper are viewable in an interactive map under the "Data & Tools" page. Our FAQs address common questions about the indices. Please cite this working paper when using the local HPI data.​ The local HPI data can be downloaded on the HPI Downloadable Data page or with these following links:

A revised version of this paper has been accepted for publication by the journal Real Estate Economics.    

Related papers: FHFA Working Paper ​16-02: Local House Price Growth Accelerations​​ and  FHFA Working Paper ​16-04: Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling

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