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Stress Tests Reports - Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

Projections of the Enterprises’ Financial Performance - October 2011

Published: 10/27/2011
​​This quarterly report provides an overview of key aspects of the financial condition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during conservatorship.

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Summary

  • This report provides updated information on possible future Treasury draws by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the "Enterprises") under specified scenarios, using consistent assumptions for both Enterprises. FHFA published initial projections of the Enterprises’ financial performance in October 2010. The report on the initial projections can be found in FHFA’s Projections of the Enterprises’ Financial Performance, October 2010. The projections have been updated to reflect the current outlook for house prices, interest rates, and recent trends in borrower behavior. The projection period has been extended an additional year.

  • To date, the Enterprises have drawn $169 billion from Treasury under the terms of the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs), as amended, between the Treasury and each of the Enterprises. FHFA worked with the Enterprises to develop forward-looking financial projections across three possible house price paths. Under the three scenarios used in the projections, cumulative Treasury draws (including dividends) at the end of 2014 range from $220 billion to $311 billion. In the initial projections released in October 2010, cumulative Treasury draws (including dividends) at the end of 2013 ranged from $221 billion to $363 billion.

  • The difference in the range of ending cumulative Treasury draws between the October 2010 projections and the October 2011 projections can be attributed primarily to the fact that actual results for the first year of the projection period in the October 2010 projections were substantially better than projected. (See page 8 for further details.)

  • The projections reported here are not expected outcomes. They are modeled projections in response to "what if" exercises based on assumptions about Enterprise operations, loan performance, macroeconomic and financial market conditions, and house prices. The projections do not define the full range of possible outcomes. Actual outcomes may be very different. This effort should be interpreted as a sensitivity analysis of future draws to possible house price paths.

  • FHFA provided the Enterprises with key assumptions for each scenario. The Enterprises used their respective internal models to project their financial results based on the assumptions provided by FHFA. While this effort achieves a degree of comparability between the Enterprises, it does not allow for actions that the Enterprises might undertake in response to the economic conditions specified in the scenarios. Those Enterprise-specific business changes could lead to different results across the scenarios than are presented in these projections.

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