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Language Translation Disclosure
Alexander N. Bogin, Senior Economist; William M. Doerner, Senior Economist; William D. Larson, Senior Economist
We document real house price growth accelerations in U.S. ZIP codes between 1975 and 2015. Acceleration episodes, which are defined to include relatively extreme periods of price growth, tend to exhibit temporal clustering and occur with greater frequency in large versus small cities. We exploit within-city variation in price dynamics to provide evidence that growth accelerations initially overshoot sustainable price levels but, in some areas, may reflect positive underlying economic fundamentals. Price levels post-acceleration are most sustainable in large cities, especially near city centers. Dynamics are generally consistent with empirical mean-reversion models and theories regarding the effects of traffic congestion and the elasticity of housing supply on house price gradients within the city.
FAQs address common questions about the indices. Please cite this working paper when using the local HPI data. The local HPI data can be downloaded on the HPI Downloadable Data page or with these following links:
A revised version of this paper has undergone external peer-review and is published in an academic journal with open (free) access. Citation: Alexander N. Bogin, William M. Doerner, William D. Larson. 2019. "Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries." Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 58(2), 201-222. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11146-017-9643-y
Related paper:FHFA Working Paper 16-01: Local House Price Dynamics and
FHFA Working Paper 16-04: Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling
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