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Stress Tests Reports - Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

Projections of the Enterprises’ Financial Performance - October 2012

Published: 10/26/2012

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​​​​​​Introduction

  • This report provides updated information on possible ranges of future financial results of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the "Enterprises") under specified scenarios, using consistent assumptions for both Enterprises. FHFA worked with the Enterprises to develop forward-looking financial projections across three possible house price paths.

  • FHFA published updated projections of the Enterprises’ financial performance in October 2011, which can be found in FHFA’s Projections of the Enterprises’ Financial Performance, October 2011. The projections have been updated to reflect the current outlook for house prices, interest rates, trends in borrower behavior and amendments to the terms of the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) between the Treasury and each of the Enterprises. The projection period has been extended an additional year to 2015.

  • The projections reported here are not expected outcomes. They are modeled projections in response to "what if" exercises based on assumptions about Enterprise operations, loan performance, macroeconomic and financial market conditions, and house prices. The projections do not define the full range of possible outcomes. Actual outcomes may be very different. This effort should be interpreted as a sensitivity analysis of future financial results to possible house price paths.

  • FHFA provided the Enterprises with key assumptions for each scenario. The assumptions used in each of the three scenarios are described on page 14. The Enterprises used their respective internal models to project their financial results based on the assumptions provided by FHFA. While this effort achieves a degree of comparability between the Enterprises, it does not allow for actions that the Enterprises might undertake in response to the economic conditions specified in the scenarios. Those Enterprise-specific business changes could lead to different results across the scenarios than are presented in these projections.​

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